Bike 4.24.08

$5-10$ NL ... Buy in for $1,500 and run it up to $2,700. Then got moved to a table where I played too many hands and never caught decent hands. Ended up even, cashing out for $1,500. Decided to play $335 NL tourney, lasted about an hour. Horrible players, horrible 30 minute structure. Played well, just lost 2 races in a row to same player.

Against my better judgement I went back to cash games, and despite playing at a lower level ($3-$5 NL and $5-$5 NL), ended up losing the remaining $1,1165 over a 6 hour session.

Total for the day: ($-1,500). This puts me about even for the year. So, time to practice the discipline it takes to grind profits. #1 battle is with impatience and boredom. Gaaaaaaawd it takes so much time between hands. So I end up getting in too many pots and playing poorly.

I just realized ... I have generally had more profit in the first half of a session (say inside 3 hours) than in the second half. Also, I think I have an application for the Pareto Principle. 80% of the profits will come from 20% of the sessions, and within a session, 80% of the wins will be done in 20% of the pots.

SO FOCUS ON BETTER TIMING ... HOLDING TO THE 80-20 RULE ABOVE. And let the other 80% of the time just be less volatile, more "idle" profit preservation, NOT downswing time. THAT is your number one leak. Not paying people off who have you beat, not making moves at the wrong time, not being outplayed alot. Rather, it is refusing to succumb to the reality of the 80-20 rule. So if the patience doesn't lead to profit at any given session, get up, and realize you still need to abide by the bigger rule that 20% of the sessions yield 80% of the profit.  Put differently, 20% of the profit is spread across 80% of the time.

This is for cash games of course. But I wouldn't be surprised if tourneys are to yield similar rules of profit. Bad play can of course make you lose 100% of the time!

4.20.08 Bike

Won $450 in $3-$5 NL, used profit to buy into $335 tourney. Wasn't too excited about the 30 minute rounds and smallish turnout, busted on second hand LOL. Then proceeded to lose remainder of profit plus another $400 at the same game, which was just dead. I decided to gamble mostly on some dumb preflop plays. Left after about 30 mins.

Total session -$500

4.17.08 Bike $5-$5 NL

Took away +$1,250 in a 5 hr session. Lost $350 on my second hand with J-J in the BB, but didn't tilt and quickly built it back up after a $400 reload. Prefer the games here to Commerce's similar limits because a) not as many reckless players so variance is less, easier to be table captain which is my most profitable style and b) there is an unlimited buy-in on the $5-$10. And the $5-$5 has a spread limit buy-in of $300-$500 which is a deeper stack than $400 at $10 BB at Commerce. Just altogether a more profitable environment.

Commerce 10-20 NL

Friday afternoon started play about 4pm. Bought in for $2,500. Ran it up to $6,000 in 2.5 hrs. Then Asian to my right flops set holding 2-2 on a flop of 6-6-2. I have position on him with K-K, called him down to river. ($3k) in that one hand. Fuck. Then got coolered by him again, ($1k). Back to where I started. Ran it back to $4k then lost $2k when my flush lost to river board pairing. In both the K-K vs 2-2 and this hand, my gut told me I was beat at the river but I proceeded to make the call anyways. After that I would not say I played terrible, but just never got enough big pot action, and ultimately moved in looking to win a $2,400 pot on a flush draw but blanked out.

-$2,500 for the session. No going to do Vegas this week for WPT Championship super satellites unless I feel really, really good mentally, and business continues to ramp up nicely. Just too much damn time and money to get up there, stay, try some single table satellites, potentially not hit on those and be forced to fork over $2,500 for the super, only to run the risk of not getting that done. Probably better to just cool off the downswing, focus on business and family, reflect further on the elements of play that have not been good enough to yield a profit.

It's NEVER a good place to be when you fear a bust at the cash game or tournament. Playing when it is not financially justified or when your time belongs with business or family is a sure fire recipe for bad play. So I may likely just hold off until the WSOP starts in June. That leaves 6 weeks to "refortify" and put myself in a position for success.

But enough of this damn downswinging. Preserve the profits when you hit them, and just knit up until the next big pot. Generally my small ball instincts have been good. What erodes the stack is ..

a) Making too many speculative preflop overcalls simply cause the pot odds are there, even with garbage hands. Of particular weakness has been suited cards and 2-3 gappers with a face card. Just playing too many hands, which over a 4-6 hour session at 50-75 bucks per call, just kills the stack.

b) Not getting up when I have run it up nicely, especially if that is early in the session. I suppose if the game is really juicy, fine. But if it is a game with strong players and all I did was score do to some better luck, might as well count the blessings and JET. Or even sit at a smaller game, risking only 2 or 3 small buyins. Pocket the profit.

Not so much uncontrolled tilting ... rather slow but inevtibale EROSION. Rid your game of it, or just don't play. 

Hustler $1,000

Played the championship $1k event yesterday. 10,000 in starting chips and a decent structure (albeit 45 minute rounds would have been better at 60 mins). 107 entrants, placed 22nd. No comments other than I played very solid. Patient, and never got it in bad other than the final hand but based on 12,000 chips in BB with 1,000-2,000 blinds + 400 ante ... any two cards probably called for the shove. Most pivotal hand was when my AK lost to set of Jacks with a flop of A-J-x. That took me from 40,000 to 15,000. Got it back up to 25,000 but by then it was 2 card holdem and I never caught a big enough hand for about an hour to call all the shoves to my right. Played the 5-10 NL with a small min buy in of $500 (that game allows up to $2,500 buy-in). 100 bucks profit over 4 hours, though I did have it up to $1k profit then got sucked out when my A-A lost to K-K with a river K. Played too many hands though ... and must fix that leak. Though it may be boring, if I endeavor to yield consistent profit from this game, I am simply going to have to knit up after a run-up, and play less hands overall. Stop the retarded limp-calling bullshit also. Aside from the occasional time when I am in late position and getting 6 to 1 or better to get in. LATE POSITION.

Bye

So much for playing good!

-$2,000 at Commerce 5-10 NL in about 4 hours. Niiiice. Mostly bad play, impatient, too many hands, missing draws. Just plain was not feeling the A-game and should have done much better at tightening up and just enduring the boredom between hands.

Also, having talked about the dynamic of this game alot with Greenie, I am giving real consideration whether to play this game so much. The 10-20 NL would be a better place to play some real poker and improve my game. Just need to do it when I am 100% comfortable with the stakes. Since the business is still in the slower season, I am not quite there.

Vegas games however can be had for 5-10 NL stakes that have softer opponents. So I will wait til the Bellagio WPT to get in on some of that. But unless business makes a nice sprint into May, it may be smarter to forego the trip and just play the Hustler $1,000 Main Event Saturday, and if I score nicely there I could have those funds apply.

FJN